The Bears have looked so bad; people appear to be willing to just concede Thursday night’s game or even the season, if the NFL will allow it. People act like no team could possibly be as bad as the Bears – who have four wins. Contempt for the Bears grows because many expected more than this. Now to these people, each game is just a loss waiting to happen. Well it’s not. The 49ers aren’t very good either.

The first few weeks of the season were tough for the Bears in terms of media perception; they made the big move of the offseason and some national writers guaranteed their greatness. (Hello, Peter King.) So when things looked just OK out of the gate, it wasn’t good enough. And when things look like they do now, well, the Bears must be the worst team ever.

On the other hand, the 49ers were a Brett Favre Hail Mary from starting the season 4-0. They’ve taking a 3-1 start, a former No. 1 pick getting a second chance, a recognizable head coach and turned it into media gold. Sure, they’ve lost four in a row, but they’re likable by golly.

Look at this picture taken from the National Football Post on Monday. Singletary leads the 49ers’ “revival,” really? Not a very good revival. While Singletary leads a “revival” with the 3-5 Niners, Lovie Smith is being accused of dragging his team into the depths of mediocrity at 4-4.

This isn’t an easy game for the Bears, because no game is, but the 49ers have holes that makes it a good match-up for the Bears. If only this game weren’t on Thursday in San Francisco; I’d feel even better about it.

When the Bears have the ball

It’s time for the Bears to enter “Rex Grossman: F*** It I’m Throwing Deep” mode (*), if they weren’t already there. We can all agree the Bears can’t run the ball, right? I mean, I don’t trust them to run against anyone, let alone a defense as good as the Niners. If we can agree on this, I’m pretty sure we can agree the Bears can’t prevent Patrick Willis from blowing up Matt Forte every play.

(*) Link is from Kissing Suzy Kolber circa 2006. Language is NSFW, but it’s really funny.

Willis is pretty much perfect; the Bears’ only bet is to stay away from him. The NFL Network is selling Willis as the reincarnate of a living Mike Singletary, and besides Willis dressing like him on the field, he’s doing a pretty good impression.

Here is most of Willis’ scouting report according to ESPN’s Scouts Inc:

He is a very good athlete who has outstanding instincts and range … Shows explosive burst to the ball against the run … a very good tackler who can wrap up quickly … agile enough to be productive in traffic or out in space … quick to get his depth in zone reads … effective in man coverage due to his excellent body control and ability to mirror downfield. Overall, Willis is a very good player who has outstanding range and instincts.

I looked at the scouting report for each member of the Bears’ offensive line;  none of them read quite like that. Not too many players’ do. And it’s not just Willis, the Bears’ line is overmatched all over the place when it comes to running the ball – as they usually are. The 49ers are first in the NFL in yards allowed per carry. For those who prefer Football Outsiders’ statistics, the 49ers are fifth in weighted rush defense DVOA (**). According to Scouts Inc, the men in front of Willis do a great job consuming blockers, letting Willis and other linebackers roam untouched; they singled out nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin.

(**)The 49ers weighted rush defense DVOA is -18.4%. Basically, what this means is the 49ers are currently 18.4% more likely to prevent a successful running play than an average team. The league-average is always represented by 0%.

The Niners excel at run defense, but the defensive line is not especially talented when it comes to pass rushing. Old school Bears fans and Forte’s fantasy owners may be upset, but the Bears are simply better off letting their best player wing the ball all over the field, ala the “Rex Grossman: F*** It I’m Throwing Deep” game plan. The 49ers are 18^th in the NFL in sacks and really don’t have any special individuals on the line for the Bears to worry about. Of course, this hasn’t always mattered – the Browns don’t make a habit of getting in a quarterbacks face – and the Bears still will have to do a good job in blitz pickup.

But the Bears’ biggest advantage in this game is Jay Cutler. If the Bears use Desmond Clark, keep Matt Forte in to protect and/or move the pocket outside the tackles Cutler should have some time to throw enough deep balls to cause problems in the 49ers’ secondary. The 49ers’ two starting corners coming out of camp (Nate Clements and Walt Harris) are injured. This leaves key match-ups between Devin Hester and Earl Bennett against 49ers corners Tarell Brown and Shawntae Spencer: a match-up Cutler should be able to use to his advantage if he has time.

When the 49ers have the ball

The game plan for the Bears’ defense is really simple: slow down Frank Gore. Last week the Bears let a team that acts like they’re not even allowed to run the ball, to run all over them. Looking at this in a positive light, the primary reason the Cardinals were able to run the ball was because the Bears had to worry about Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, etc. If that’s the case, there’s hope. Minus the passing threats, the Bears can concentrate on Gore, simply stacking the box with eight and occasionally nine-man fronts. Just stop him.

Gore is the key. For a running back, Gore plays a tremendously large role in the 49ers offense. The production of the running back is largely based on how well the offensive line blocks for him. Though according to Football Outsiders, Gore and the other seldom used 49ers’ backs are responsible for gaining 1.04 yards per carry (third in the NFL), largely on their own (***).

(***) FO figures this based on a stat they derived called “Adjusted Line Yards.” ALY takes all of a team’s rushing attempts and “assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on yardage gained.” Take a team’s ALY, subtract it from a team’s yards per carry and the difference determines the yards the back is responsible for gaining.

Even with players stacked at the line of scrimmage, the Bears will be in a good enough position to still take away the biggest cog in the 49ers’ passing game, Vernon Davis. Davis is the best tight end the Bears have faced since Tony Gonzalez; he had only four receptions for 52 yards, but it was his one TD that showed what kind of damage a good tight end could do over the deep middle in the Tampa-2. The difference this time is the 49ers don’t have Matt Ryan or Roddy White. Without big time threats outside, the Bears can bracket Davis by giving the linebacker help over the top with a safety.

All of these options are possible because Alex Smith is the Niners’ quarterback. And because pressure isn’t crucial to the team’s success. Quarterbacks like Kurt Warner and Carson Palmer need someone in their face to do something stupid; Alex Smith will just do something stupid. As long as the Bears’ corners don’t allow any big plays because for one moment one thinks he might, maybe, just be able to get a Pick 6. By limiting the Niners on the outside the Bears can bracket Davis throughout and not have to bring a safety to help the corner. Bracketing Davis and stacking the box means a lot of  one-on-one with Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan. Last week, one-on-one situations didn’t go so well, but last week involved Warner and Larry Fitzgerald. This week if they avoid big plays, it becomes a waiting game before Alex Smith screws up.

And when the Bears get turnovers on defense they win.