Let’s talk numbers, not goalies

I’ve moved past the Blackhawks’ goalie situation. I’m worried about it; you’re worried about it; everyone is worried about it. Still, the deadline is over and nothing is going to change. I think Dan Bernstein does a good job explaining how pointless this debate is on the 670 The Score’s Blog:

“Antti Niemi starts tonight as the Hawks welcome the L.A. Kings, and the goaltender talk meanders in pointless circles. If it comes down to the dumb luck that one of the two options becomes “hot,” (which as I have pointed out, is silly), then there is no logical reason to scrutinize each goal or save. A bet on random chance is just that.”

In an effort to back him up, take a couple of minutes to Google “‘hot’ goalies.” You may find some steamy pictures of Patrick Roy, but you won’t find anything that will make you feel better or worse about the Blackhawks’ predicament.

If you do take the time to research, you will learn that your team needs a “hot” goalie in the playoffs to be successful; also, you’ll probably find a bunch of stats analyzing a “hot” goalie’s performance with great hindsight –- one such analysis featuring Chicago’s very own Cristobal Huet. There is no denying that goalies have hot streaks; it’s just impossible to predict them.

Since the goaltending issue is still top of mind for most ‘Hawks fans, and I don’t know what else to say about it, I wanted to look at some of the statistical analysis that is happening in the NHL.

With all the advancements in statistical analysis in baseball, I don’t even know if you have to watch a game to have an educated opinion about a team. Hockey doesn’t work this way; like basketball and football, hockey involves so much teamwork and lineup changes that it is still important to pay attention to the games.

Still, statistics can definitely help better understand. And even though baseball sabermetrics are the only widely accepted, widely understood form of statistical analysis, I think there is value in understanding the progress in statistical analysis in hockey.

There are a lot of reasons hockey metrics are so far behind baseball and the other major sports. For one, I think the basics of statistical analysis in baseball is far easier to explain and understand. It’s not that difficult to describe weighted on-base average (wOBA) to someone with a previous understanding of OBP –- at least it’s not hard to describe well enough that he understands how it affects his favorite team or player.

The steps it takes to get from OBP to wOBA are much simpler than it is for hockey stats — adjustments don’t have to be made for teammates or the entire opposing team, just the pitcher.

Most people know hockey stats by goals, assists, points and plus/minus; however, there is almost zero correlation between goals and advanced hockey metrics. There is a relationship between plus/minus and hockey metrics, but still, it takes a lot of steps to put it into context. Basketball and football metrics have the same problem: Teammates, opponent, score, game situation, etc. all have to be taken into account.

Why statistical analysis in hockey is behind the other sports, as well as what’s new in hockey statistics, was the topic of an interview between Adam Gretz of NHL FanHouse and Gabriel Desjardins, who writes for Behind the Net and Puck Prospectus.

So what new stats are important, and how do they impact the Blackhawks?

Let’s start with two concepts that Desjardins uses: They are “quality of teammates” and “quality of competition.”

According to Desjardins, Quality of Teammates (or Qualteam) is simple, “It’s just the average rating of a player’s teammates.” And if the number is high, it means that player plays with other players who regularly outperform their team.

For the Blackhawks: Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa and Duncan Keith top the list.

Based on Qualteam and Desjardins, the Blackhawks are in a unusual circumstance. Desjardins says, “You can identify which line a player plays on almost immediately by looking over a roster’s worth of Quality of Teammates.” Most teams fall into order on the Qualteam rankings, the order of their line: the first three are line No. 1, the next three are line No. 2, etc. (The same thing for defensemen: The first two are No. 1, etc.)

But for the Hawks, Hossa and Troy Brouwer rank higher than first-liners Patrick Kane and Patrick Sharp. I have no idea why this is; hopefully, I have an answer for next week.

But if you’re interested in the Blackhawks’ learning more about the Blackhawks’ opponents, this stat gives you a good idea of the opponents’ top lines.

Related to Quality of Teammates is Quality of Competition (or Qualcomp). Behind The Net describes the basic idea of Qualcomp: “We want to characterize the characteristics of the opponents that a particular player lines up against.”

Most effectively, Qualcomp measures which players are facing the toughest match-ups: For the Blackhawks, this would be Keith and Brent Seabrook.

From this, I think it just solidifies how important Keith and Seabrook are going to be in the playoffs. Considering the goaltending situation, a lot is asked of the Blackhawks’ top defensemen, and apparently, they spend a lot of time on the ice against the other team’s best players.

Well, now I officially have a headache from all these numbers. This is kind of what I wanted with Blackhawks Thursday: A forum to help me dissect my thoughts on the Blackhawks, as well as my progress towards understanding what’s going on. And I hoped it would do the same for other new fans. Sometimes, like today, they won’t always be the most coherent thoughts, but now I have a list of questions that I want answered.

To other novice hockey fans like me: If there is something regarding the Blackhawks, statistical or otherwise, you’d like to know, send me an email or write a comment below. I’ll try my best to find the answer.

If you’re looking for answers on your own, a good place to start would be the sites in this post, as well as their respective blog rolls. I found a lot of good stuff on these sites, but just too much stuff to process in one day.