Bears Brain Trust will go over each position and see how the Bears did. We’ll look at how the Bears finished in 2009, what they tried to do during the offseason, and how well they executed — and if they should have done anything differently.
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Still here:

• Brian Urlacher, injured in the first half of week one; missed the rest of the season
• Tim Shaw, special teams player who has found himself a place in Bears lore because of one excellent game
• Kevin Malast, finished last season on the Bears practice squad

In:

• Matt Mayberry, undrafted free agent

It’s Urlacher or a outside linebacker sub. We all saw what that looks like last season.

2009 review: Things were OK for about two quarters

Brian Urlacher injured his right wrist in the first quarter of the first game last season. He played with the injury in the second quarter; the next day he had surgery; and that was the end of that. The Bears spent the rest of the 2009 season scrambling to find someone both physically and mentally capable of stepping in at middle linebacker.

The next-most experienced middle linebacker on the Bears roster, Hunter Hillenmeyer, took over for a couple weeks. Let’s just say he struggled.

Hillenmeyer was responsible for the deep middle — the middle linebacker’s main responsibility in the Tampa 2 — but he lacked the Urlacher-like athletic ability to do it. It wasn’t long before he was replaced by a more athletic option.

The better athlete was Nick Roach. But in his starts, he struggled to make the proper checks, and otherwise be the “quarterback” of the defense. So the Bears had no other choice but to go back to Hillenmeyer. But like I said, he struggled.

2010 offseason plan: Brian, how’s your wrist?

The Bears’ plan at middle linebacker is a less risky version of the plan at defensive tackle. When healthy and playing well, Urlacher and Tommie Harris are (maybe “were” is a better word) among the best at their position. They both also make a ton of money. They make enough money that it would be ridiculous to spend money in free agency in order to acquire an expensive insurance plan.

The difference between Harris and Urlacher is that Urlacher has been a better player in recent years.

So while it looks like the Bears’ plan was was to ignore the position in the draft and free agency, at least there is some reason to be optimistic about Urlacher. It hasn’t been as many years since Urlacher was a good starter.

Execution: It’s pretty easy to do nothing

These were/are the top middle linebackers available in the offseason:

• Karlos Dansby; signed with Dolphins; five years, $43 million
• Derrick Johnson; re-signed with Chiefs; one year, $2.6 million
• DeMeco Ryans; re-signed with Texans; six years, $48 million with $21.75 million guaranteed
• Gary Brackett; re-signed with Colts; five years, $33 million with $12 million signing bonus
• Keith Bullock, signed with the Giants; one year, $1.105 million

Different year, different situation, maybe the Bears are interested in signing a young player like Karlos Dansby or DeMeco Ryans.

But similar to the defensive tackles: so much is already invested in Urlacher. A lot is invested in Urlacher; the Bears spent a lot on Julius Peppers to improve the defensive end position; and there are/were other holes to fill.

Instead, the Bears did nothing but hope for the best.

More Bears offseason reviews and position previews:

• Defensive End
• Defensive Tackle

Bears Brain Trust will go over each position and see how the Bears did. We’ll look at how the Bears finished in 2009, what they tried to do during the offseason, and how well they executed — and if they should have done anything differently.

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The top free agent tackles were quickly franchised by their own teams; the Bears didn’t have a draft pick until the third round; plus, they had more than a few holes outside of DT to fill. On top of limited chances to get better on the inside of the defensive line, the Bears have already invested a lot of money in the position, mainly in Tommie Harris.

Hoping that Harris is a top defensive tackle again, probably isn’t the most reliable plan; the Bears didn’t have a lot of choices, though. Let’s breakdown the Bears offseason at defensive tackle.

Still here:

• Tommie Harris, 19 tackles and 2.5 sacks in 15 games
• Jarron Gilbert, top draft pick of ‘09 played in only four games
• Anthony Adams, 36 tackles and 2.0 sacks in 16 games
• Marcus Harrison, 16 tackles and 1.0 sack in 16 games
• Matt Toeaina, played in two games

Out:

• Israel Idonije, Lovie Smith says he’d like to lock Idonije in more at DE than DT

In:

• Jimmy Saddler-McQueen, undrafted free agent
• Averell Spicer, undrafted free agent

It’s going to be the same cast in 2010. If Tommie Harris is healthy, can he be effective? Or, is he simply not that good anymore?

2009 review: Real bad

Perhaps more disappointing than the Bears’ defensive ends were the defensive tackles. Tommie Harris’ play continued to fall, and as whole, the unit failed to make a difference.

Most, if not all of the blame could be placed on Harris, who according to ProFootballFocus.com, graded out as one of the worst defensive tackles in football last season. According to their grading system, Harris ranked 75th among the 87 DTs that played at least 25% of their team’s snaps. Teammate Marcus Harrison was one of the 12 players worse than him.

Based on those grades, the one bright spot for the Bears’ defensive tackles was Israel Idonije; however, Lovie Smith would like to lock in at defensive end (a more natural position for Idonije) more than previous seasons.

2010 offseason plan: No way out

There’s too much money invested in Harris and too many other problems that prevented the Bears from doing anything crazy in free agency about the deficiency at defensive tackle.

Hopefully, because Harris didn’t need offseason surgery for the first time in a long time, he’ll be a little closer to the old, difference-making Harris. Otherwise, the “overpaid” tag will stick with him. And again, him being overpaid will have hindered the Bears from looking for outside help.

Even if they wanted to look outside for help, there was no one on the market better than Harris … if a healthier Harris means a more productive Harris. The top DTs were quickly franchised by their old teams and after that, the list of available tackles were of little interest to me.

Here’s a list of the top free agent defensive tackles.

• Vince Wilfork, franchised by the Patriots
• Aubrayo Franklin, franchised by the 49ers
• Ryan Pickett, franchised by the Packers
• Dwan Edwards, signed by the Bills; four years, $18 million
• Jason Ferguson, re-signed by the Dolphins; one year, $1.65 million

Execution: It’s pretty easy to do nothing

The Bears executed the sit-and-hope plan perfectly. The Bears took extra care of Harris in mini camp, hoping to preserve his health even more; and didn’t make the slightest move in free agency at this position. The only additions are two cheap, undrafted free agents.

Whether the execution works or not depends on Harris. Was Harris ineffective the last two seasons because he needed to undergo surgery before the season? Or is the fact that he’s had all of these injuries, which required surgery, done enough damage?

Other offseason reviews:

• Defensive end

More Bears-related content can be found at Bears Brain Trust

There are a thousand different books, magazines, websites and TV shows trying to predict what’s going to happen this season. Some use formulas that project how many games a team is going to win; some say a team is looking confident and the writer just thinks they’re going to win. Whether they use objective statistics or old-timey anecdotes, it’s still only a prediction.

Bears Brain Trust will go over each position and see how the Bears did. We’ll look at how the Bears finished in 2009, what they tried to do during the offseason, and how well they executed — and if they should have done anything differently.

Still here:

• Mark Anderson, had two sacks and 22 tackles in 16 games last season
• Henry Melton, did not play

Out:

• Gaines Adams , died of cardiac arrest
• Alex Brown, released and signed with Saints
• Adewale Ogunleye, not re-signed and still unsigned

In:

• Julius Peppers , signed six-year deal worth $91 million ($42 million guaranteed)
• Israel Idonije, Lovie Smith says he’d like to lock Idonije in more at DE than DT
• Corey Wootton, drafted in the fourth round
• Barry Turner, undrafted free agent

If Alex Brown were still on the roster, it would be impossible to complain about the Bears’ decisions this off-season. Not that I’m complaining; it’s just after adding the best free agent available at any position (Julius Peppers), it’s difficult to find other things to be upset about.

Not that the talent — top to bottom — is the best in the league — (it’s definitely not). But considering the situation, the Bears put together a unit with enough talent at the top to possibly be competent enough to keep Rod Marinelli from sending five and six pass-rushers, and taking the Bears out of the Cover 2.

2009 review: Help!

As a whole, the Bears’ defensive line was a huge problem; it’d be fair to blame either the inside or outside of the D-line. Both are partly to blame for the Bears having to send 6+ people at the quarterback more than all but two teams in the NFL, just to generate some kind of pressure. But, whether you want to blame the interior or the exterior, the Bears could have used an upgrade at defensive end.

Alex Brown graded well at ProFootballFocus.com; Adewale Ogunleye did not. At ProFootballFocus.com, Ogunleye was rated as a below average defensive end, was especially awful against the run, and his 6.5 sacks did little to make up for his poor run support.

Considering the 2009 cap hit for Ogunleye and Brown, combined, was over $10 million and 12-percent of the team’s total salary, the Bears were certainly not getting their money’s worth.

2010 offseason plan: Hurry, throw money at it

The Bears’ desperately needed to upgrade their pass rush; they have a lot of money already invested at defensive tackle (Tommie Harris , mainly); so, the Bears threw money at the defensive end spot.

Harris’ 2009 cap hit was just over $9 million. Harris’ actual value was nowhere close to that, and actually, according to ProFootballFocus.com, he was one of the worst defensive tackles or nose tackles in the game.

Yet, as bad as Harris was the hope going into this season is that he’s healthy for the first time. A healthy (good) Harris would be the best thing for the Bears’ pass rush; if he’s not good, even if he’s healthy, the Bears already have so much money invested in the position. With this much invested, it made more sense to take the money and draft picks at defensive end.

(Yes, I know it’s an uncapped year; still, there’s a budget. You’re not going to spend $30 or $40 million on one position.)

Because unlike the dream scenario — Harris is able to stay healthy and bounce back as a top defensive tackle — there was no hope of a dramatic turnaround at end. With aging veterans in Ogunleye and Brown, no draft picks until the third round, and especially after Gaines Adams’ death in the offseason, the Bears’ only choice was to go the free agency route at defensive end.

Execution: Yeah, he’ll work

To throw money at the pass rush problem, means the Bears threw money at Julius Peppers. Peppers was the best free agent available, forget position; in that regard, the Bears succeeded.

Here were/are the five of the best available defensive ends, besides Peppers:

• Richard Seymour; franchised by Raiders; $12.4 million
• Aaron Kampman; signed by Jaguars; four years, $26 million with $11 million guaranteed
• Paul Spicer, unsigned
• Derrick Burgess; re-signed by Patriots; one year, $1.5 million
• Leonard Little, unsigned

Peppers’ six-year, $91 million contract (with $42 million guaranteed) is considerably larger than all of those deals — combined. At the same time, is there anyone listed above who could possibly improve an entire unit by himself? No.

I don’t know if Peppers can do it, but in an uncapped year with the position the Bears’ coaches and management are in, it’s worth a shot, right?

For more breakdowns of the Bears’ off-season and other Bears stuff, check out Bears Brain Trust.

Yesterday, I noted that the Football Outsiders Almanac 2010 doesn’t have as many pessimistic feelings about the Bears as I do.

In 60% of my Bears thoughts, I have the offense struggling to pick up Mike Martz ’s system; Tommie Harris unhealthy and Julius Peppers unable to pick up enough of the slack to make a difference; and people criticizing Jay Cutler because they don’t like his body language after he throws interceptions.

Football Outsiders’ formulas expect more, though. The formulas and objective projections have the Bears with about 9 wins and contending for the playoffs and/or the Super Bowl 60% of the time.

Well, if they’re contending for the playoffs with 9 wins, what about the rest of the NFC North. Where do they sit, and how do they keep the Bears in contention. Here’s the projections for the other three teams.

On top of the division: the Green Bay Packers

2010 Mean Projections: 9.4 wins
On the Clock (0-3): 1%
Loserville (4-6): 8%
Mediocrity (7-8): 23%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 39%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 30%

Just behind the Bears: the Minnesota Vikings

2010 Mean Projections: 8.6 wins (and, yes, this includes Brett Favre)
On the Clock (0-3): 2%
Loserville (4-6): 13%
Mediocrity (7-8): 31%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 34%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 19%

Worst in the NFC North; worst in the NFL by 1.4 games: the Detroit Lions

2010 Mean Projections: 3.1 wins
On the Clock (0-3): 67%
Loserville (4-6): 29%
Mediocrity (7-8): 3%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 1%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 0%

I don’t think anything compares to when Baseball Prospectus’ yearly book comes out. Nothing compares to the way stats can project baseball, but this is as close as it gets for football. Last week, Football Outsiders Almanac 2010 was released.

If you’ve never read it before, every year is a great year to check out the almanac. And for $12, the PDF version of it is a great deal.

The 2010 edition, like most everyone else, has a lot of questions about the Bears; still, 60% of FO’s formulas project a favorable outcome — much better than the pessimistic ideas I have in my own head.

And unlike most NFL preview books and magazines, it doesn’t just pull the win total out of thin air. For each team, Football Outsiders runs three equations to forecast the 2010 DVOA for offense, defense and special teams. Then, the 2010 season is simulated 10,000 times. After every projection, this is how the Bears were projected to finish:

2010 Mean Projection: 9.0 wins
On the Clock (0-3): 2%
Loserville (4-6): 11%
Mediocrity (7-8): 28%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 37%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 23%

I’ll refer to this book about a thousand times before the season starts, and probably a few times after that. Until then, take this from Football Outsiders Almanac 2010: It’s not crazy to think the Bears will be good.

Any time people mention Jay Cutler, eventually the discourse turns into a “debate” about Cutler and a lot of name calling. And if this debate occurs on the Internet, there will be a lot of misspellings … I mean, a lot of misspellings.

Even when Cutler says he plans to do something small, something that can’t hurt his chances of helping the Bears, people just can’t get over his “jerk face.”

Read more at Bears Brain Trust.

I feel better about the Bears today, Wednesday, than I did this time on Tuesday. Chris Harris isn’t perfect (far from it), but at least I know what he does. Is Major Wright and Al Afalava half the secondary you want next season? How much would you expect from those two, if they started on Week 1?

My answers: No and no idea. Wright was the 75th overall pick in the draft; expectations have to be adjusted accordingly. And since Afalava (a sixth-round pick) played better than a sixth-rounder, some Bears fans got excited about his potential. However, starting the season with those two would make me, just a simple Bears fan, nervous; and I can only imagine how it would feel to rest my job on their ability to cover the deep middle. Jerry Angelo is doing a lot of hiring and firing in the the scouting department underneath him; it would all be for naught, if the Bears — and the secondary is a big part of that — doesn’t play better.

With Harris, we know what we’re getting. And he’s probably the Bears’ best safety, right now. It’s encouraging that basically everone has the same assessment of Harris. Despite some flaws, there shouldn’t be any surprises.

Even back in the good ol’ days of 2005, Harris has been consistent. In 2005, the Bears were headed to the playoffs and Harris was a rookie. Football Outsiders broke down the Bears defense, and they had a lot of good things to say about him. They complimented his way to play near the line of scrimmage and get off blocks.

FO also said the best thing about Harris’ role in the pass defense is that you don’t notice him; however, because he lacks ideal speed, they were concerned with his skills against the deep ball.
FO’s Michael David Smith wrote: “Harris especially shines in the red zone, where he can concentrate on what’s in front of him and not worry about being beaten deep.”

Years later, Harris is the same guy (ESPN Insiders only). Harris is still a big hitter, a smart player who knows where to be, but someone who isn’t the quickest or the fastest.

Compared to Danieal Manning, and some of the high-end athletes that can’t figure out Cover-2 or deep middle, I’ll take someone being in the right place for a change. Even if he’s not there as quickly as others.

Plus, at least, I know what to expect.

[UPDATED: The Bears traded safety Kevin Payne to the St. Louis Rams for an undisclosed draft pick.]

More Bears coverage at BearsBrainTrust.com

Usually, I’m pretty well read on each year’s class, but when the Bears don’t have a pick until No. 75 overall, it’s hard to get into the draft. Now I’m playing catch-up with the five players the Bears selected on Friday and Saturday. And really, there’s no better place to start catching up than YouTube.

(Warning: Shameless plug) More Bears coverage can be found at BearsBrainTrust.com.

Major Wright, third round, safety, Florida

Wright was a three-year starter at a prominent football school in the SEC, so there are a ton of fan-created highlight tapes of the Bears’ newest safety. But let’s just watch the big hit Wright made in the 2009 National Championship Game. For the Bears’ purposes, it’s a good sign that Thom Brennaman, in calling the play, mentions that there’s no one within ten yards of the receiver when the ball is thrown. Of course, Brennaman may have been too busy planning his next Tim Tebow monologue to be paying attention.

Corey Wootton, fourth round, defensive end, Northwestern

This video was put together by the NFL Draft blog Mocking the Draft, so they’re interested in getting the best information out there. Unfortunately, the best information for Wootton comes from 2008. If Wootton’s healthy, though, he’s not a fourth-round draft pick.

Joshua Moore, fifth round, cornerback, Kansas State

Based on this video, there’s quite a sentimental bond between Moore and Kansas State — or, at least KSUPoetWarrior.

Dan LeFevour, sixth round, quarterback, Central Michigan

There’s no point getting upset over sixth-round draft picks, right? Sure, but I just don’t get this particular one. This is the kind of pick Josh McDaniels makes. Or at least, it’s the kind of pick a good team, with a solid foundation, few weaknesses and time to reap the benefits makes. Because should LeFevour succeed in the NFL, it probably won’t be in a Bears uniform.

J’Marcus Webb, seventh round, offensive tackle, West Texas A&M

Not surprisingly, the publicly available film on Webb is limited. I bet you didn’t even know West Texas A&M existed before Saturday. So how much video can there be? While there isn’t any video of Webb playing, there is this creepy video — with no sound, possibly taken by a really nice camera phone — of him walking on the sideline.

And there is your 2010 Bears draft class.

It’s been awhile since I’ve done some self-promoting. But remember, Nick Roach signed his tender offer yesterday, and I have a Bears blog. I wonder what’s over there.

Read more at Bears Brain Trust.

I mentioned it in today’s Welcome, but I’ve started a new site: Bears Brain Trust.

I’ll continue to contribute at i94 Sports, as well as write here. Bears Brain Trust is just another site where it’s all me, all the time, though. And really, the only difference between that site and the one you currently occupy is that Bears Brain Trust will focus on the Bears and the NFL, and no Bears news is too small to be covered — at least a little. So if you’ve ever cared to read my take on the signing of Kahlil Bell, Tim Shaw or Matt Toeaina, that would be the place to check for it. (Although, no post is up, yet. Sorry).

Anyways, thanks for your continued support of Outside the Clubhouse, and please check out Bears Brain Trust, as well as the rest of the Sports Page Network.